Bangkok: A Doughnut City

From his new home on Srinakarin Road bought five years ago, Somsak must drive his daughter to university in Samyan on a daily basis. He then continues to drive to his office on Soi Asoke. The oil price rise made it difficult for him to decide to sell his childhood home. He sometimes grieves that over the previous decade Bangkok has not had the same feel about it that it once had in the past.

The city’s appearance has changed, so that Bangkok today is totally different to what it was fifty years ago. The question is, what will Bangkok be like in the future? For example, what will Bangkok be like in the year 2020, or in the next twelve years, and how should we prepare to confront changes that are ominous?

I expect there to be at least two factors that will affect changes in Bangkok in the next twelve years. The first is the possibility that the Klongtoei Port will be moved and combined with Lamechabang Port, as per an agreement that one million twenty-foot containers per year (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit: TEU) be the maximum quantity of containers that is allowed to arrive at the Klongtoei Port. This implies that, compared to Lamechabang Port, the Klongtoei Port will atrophy gradually. It will be combined with Lamechabang Port eventually.

Another factor is foreign captial transfer. The World Future Society has predicted that the number of millionaires around the world will exceed one billion within 2025. This information reflects a future cornucopia of capital in the world. Capital will be moved anywhere in the world where high returns are yielded. Since Bangkok is an attractive city, we may confront tsunami-like foreign investment waves.

Two factors that I have mentioned above can change the picture of Bangkok. Areas with well-established infrastructure will be chosen specifically by foreign investors in order to support their businesses. With the increasing demand of multinational companies and foreigners, this will also result in project developers striving for office building space and central city condominiums. Consequently, not only will office building and condominium crowding occur in the central area of the city, but an increase in land price will also occur, that will crowd some residents out to the outskirts of the city.

Even though many condominiums seem to be located in the central area at this present time, these condominiums cannot completely house their residents. This is because only a small number of huge condominiums are able to house more than one thousand people. Moreover, these kinds of condominiums are normally sold at a high price to foreigners. Thus, only a few local people who earn high salaries can live in central city condominiums.

According to my close inspection of Bangkok’s population from 1998 to 2006, the information corroborates this story. Even though the inner area of Bangkok seems crowded, the number of people living there has actually decreased. In addition, the number of residents in the old city business area had decreased by an estimated 22.5 percent over a period of less than ten years. And the number of residents in the commercial area had decreased 7.6 percent. By contrast, the number of residents in the outer area of Bangkok had increased rapidly. The number of residents in high-density residential areas and suburbs had increased about 12.2 and 39.6 percent respectively.

The pattern of such change as that affects the ratio of the number of residents living in inner city areas compared to those in outer areas. According to information sources, in 1998 the majority of Bangkok dwellers lived in the inner area of Bangkok, whereas at this present more than half of all Bangkokians reside in outer areas. I predict that in 2020, nearly two-thirds of Bangkok’s population will live mainly in the outer area of the city.

Besides, due to the end of the Klongtoei Port, the city will expand to the east, even though it has been expanded quite a lot to this day. The western area of Bangkok will also be expanded, but the expansion rate may be slower than for the east of Bangkok.

If we integrate these conjectures into a coherent scenario, we may see that a filled doughnut of distorted shape would be a suitable metaphor for Bangkok in 2020; with the strawberry jam filling as the crowed commercial area; the distorted dough as the residential area holding out- crowded residents who are likely to move to Bangkok’s eastern area; and the icing as the sparse agricultural area on the outskirts of Bangkok city.

If there is no plan to correct it from now until 2020, Bangkok city traffic will be in crisis. Though the population may move out from the central area of the city, people will still work in the city and thus need to commute downtown. Roads that connect the outer and inner areas of the city would therefore be more crowded. West Bangkok will accommodate more and more residents, but permission to erect high-rise buildings will not be granted. Consequently, a legion of people will inevitably cross the Chaophraya River to work downtown, causing agonizing traffic problems on the bridges connecting both sides of the Chaophraya River.

To compound the traffic trouble, skytrain and subway routes will be built continuously from now on. Due to an increase in the number of people who will stay in Bangkok’s outer areas and the sky-high price of oil, the government will be urged to grant route extensions for the subway or skytrain. For this reason, I surmise that there will be Phases 3 and 4 in skytrain construction after the Phase 2 project is completed, according to plan, in 2012.

Thus, in order to contend with the menacing traffic problem, it is necessary for Bangkok to plan to solve this problem from the macro perspective level. Bangkok’s leader will also need to discern the changing trends of the city as a whole and then plan the traffic system systematically. I would suggest at least three ways to cope with the problem, that might happen as follows: -

Firstly, in order to convey the majority of Bangkokians who live in the city’s suburbs to the central area, subway routes should likewise be extended to connect every area on the outskirts of Bangkok inwards. Subways can reduce road congestion on roads connected to downtown areas, and also on bridges that connect both sides of the Chaophraya River. However, it is important to take into account the traffic problem during the period of construction.

Secondly, the current bus ticket system should be replaced by a city link card to include every kind of public transportation, such as buses, BTS, MRT, trains, and boats. A city link card would provide convenience for commuters and would also help to save their transportation costs. Furthermore, this might be an incentive for Bangkok people to use the public transport system, rather than their own cars.

Lastly, an MBTA bus schedule tracking and tracing system should be developed for people to be able to check such information in advance before leaving home. Since people who live on the outskirts of Bangkok will spend more time in commuting, they will need to manage their time efficiently. Thus, every bus should be equipped with a GPS device so that commuters can track and trace bus arrivals at their nearest bus stop via an Internet or SMS system.

The high flight of an eagle enables it to see the whole landscape clearly, and therefore pounce on its prey accurately. Likewise, for the administration of Bangkok City, its leader must take a visionary macro perspective in order to discern the future problems and be able to contend with them in time.

Dr Kriengsak Chareonwongsak
Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School , Harvard University
kriengsak@kriengsak.com, kriengsak.com, drdancando.com